trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 26 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 42% | 4% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 4% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 4% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 4% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 4% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 03 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? | Mar 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 23 | $19 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 21 | $24 | −$6 | -25% |
| Boston Univ. vs. Lehigh | Mar 20 | $10 | +$15 | +144% |
| Central Arkansas vs. Lipscomb | Feb 26 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Feb 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Feb 25 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Feb 18 | $10 | $0 | -2% |