Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffb2…561e world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
other 13% −$6
sports 11% +$14
crypto 5% −$3
politics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -8.2%
10% -17.6% 4% -16.9%
15% -25.6% 4% -25.0%
20% -32.9% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage484d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $1 $0 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $24 −$6 -25%
Boston Univ. vs. Lehigh Mar 20 $10 +$15 +144%
Central Arkansas vs. Lipscomb Feb 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 18 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 180d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $1 351d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 365d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? BUY No 99¢ $1 389d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? BUY No 97¢ $2 404d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 83 history records