Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffb1…f54e sports 1658 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-1%) realized −$159 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%858W / 782L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$105
14 days−$53
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$319
other 14% −$121
crypto 13% +$188
weather 1% −$28
world 1% −$14
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% −$11
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% −$8
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 52% -5.0%
≤30d 343 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 49% -12.2%
≤90d 935 -3.0% -12.3% 50% 49% -11.1%
all 1640 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 51% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 51% -11.1%
10% -20.3% 49% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 45% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 39% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses858 / 782
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1640 / 1658
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 71¢ 99¢ $58 $81 +$23 (+40%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $47 $73 +$26 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B OG 70¢ 56¢ $35 $29 −$7 (-19%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $19 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 16¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-86%)
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Yes 31¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$25 +52%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $38 +$12 +32%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $35 +$26 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$41 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $26 −$26 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $14 +$17 +124%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $39 +$21 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$20 +48%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $15 +$16 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $36 +$25 +70%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $42 −$41 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $70 +$25 +35%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $15 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$30 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $12 +$14 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $14 +$16 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $15 +$16 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$5 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$14 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$21 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$38 +206%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $16 −$15 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$11 +156%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +46%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -77%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $46 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $72 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 100¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 100¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $69 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $28 4h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 70¢ $36 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 75¢ $38 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 57¢ $35 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $9 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $12 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $14 25h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $14 25h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $15 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 26h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 100¢ $61 27h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $42 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 94¢ $95 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $70 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 48¢ $14 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $61 29h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $36 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $39 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.70 · official $277.71 (match) · 3500 history records