Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffb0…fb2f crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-3%) realized −$65 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$153
sports 19% +$303
other 7% +$34
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -9.1% -17.7% 35% 34% -1.7%
≤30d 77 -9.1% -17.7% 35% 34% -1.7%
≤90d 77 -9.1% -17.7% 35% 34% -1.7%
all 77 -9.1% -17.7% 35% 34% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 34% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 32% -11.1%
15% -32.8% 31% -19.7%
20% -39.4% 26% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$21 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $70 +$33 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$34 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$36 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$31 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$54 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$19 +181%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$184 +300%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$98 +664%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$8 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$13 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$25 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$69 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $33 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $20 16m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $23 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 27m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 52m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.65 · official $118.02 · 313 history records