Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FF 0xffb0…d12c sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized −$3 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3
other 30% +$15
crypto 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 43% -7.1%
≤30d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 43% -7.1%
all 7 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 43% -7.1%
10% -20.0% 43% -16.0%
15% -27.8% 43% -24.1%
20% -34.8% 43% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 21¢ $12 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $12 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $13 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $13 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.19 · official $26.19 (match) · 14 history records