Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffaf…64c6
other · 59 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$324 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$279
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,189
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions18
Markets (closed)41 / 59
History coverage104d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 18 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$323
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $550 $425 −$125 (-23%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 100¢ $103 $220 +$116 (+113%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $126 $110 −$15 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $302 $100 −$202 (-67%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $68 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 76¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 55¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$20 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $45 +$15 +34%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $404 −$48 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $388 +$102 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $334 −$332 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$29 +262%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 +$103 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $371 +$129 +35%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $134 +$66 +49%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 +$16 +74%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 12 $127 −$17 -13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$80 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $497 +$12 +2%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $106 +$14 +13%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $407 +$162 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $93 +$62 +67%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $21 +$7 +34%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $166 −$164 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk May 31 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $34 +$18 +52%
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $252 +$41 +16%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 09 $38 −$38 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 09 $32 +$6 +19%
Will StubHub (STUB) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 05 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 03 $16 +$14 +82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $13 +$7 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$381
sports 36% +$461
world 10% −$257
culture 5% +$21
finance 2% −$106
weather 1% −$53
politics 1% +$18
crypto 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 18¢ $13 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $46 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $0 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $103 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $153 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 98¢ $490 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 77¢ $388 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner BUY Switzerland 74¢ $45 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $334 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 26h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $66 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $67 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $49 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $7 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $20 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $2 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $6 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $10 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 67¢ $41 30h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $26 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +25.5% +13.5% 61% 57% -0.6%
≤30d 30 +17.1% +6.0% 57% 53% -6.5%
≤90d 36 +5.1% -4.9% 53% 50% -7.4%
all 41 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 51% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 51% -10.1%
10% -15.5% 44% -18.7%
15% -23.6% 29% -26.6%
20% -31.1% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,189.36 · official $1,189.36 (match) · 146 history records