Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffaf…b675
sports · 498 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$3,228 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,724 · open +$359
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,345
Realized+$9,724
Unrealized+$359
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses326 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions150
Markets (closed)350 / 498
History coverage105d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 150 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$52
14 days+$105
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $910 $913 +$3 (+0%)
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 93¢ 99¢ $765 $812 +$47 (+6%)
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 75¢ 98¢ $368 $484 +$116 (+32%)
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 92¢ $484 $469 −$15 (-3%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? No 94¢ 99¢ $436 $459 +$23 (+5%)
Will Kevin James attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 97¢ $403 $412 +$10 (+2%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 81¢ 97¢ $346 $412 +$66 (+19%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 92¢ 93¢ $392 $396 +$4 (+1%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $320 $359 +$39 (+12%)
Will Selena Gomez attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 99¢ $336 $344 +$8 (+2%)
Will Travis Scott attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 96¢ $337 $335 −$2 (-1%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 98¢ 100¢ $328 $334 +$6 (+2%)
Will Samuel L. Jackson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 93¢ 94¢ $317 $321 +$4 (+1%)
Will Cutter Guanthier win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $308 $309 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 92¢ $302 $281 −$21 (-7%)
Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 92¢ 98¢ $258 $274 +$17 (+6%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 87¢ 90¢ $262 $270 +$8 (+3%)
Will Quinn Hughes win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 99¢ 100¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 96¢ 100¢ $254 $265 +$11 (+4%)
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 89¢ $292 $265 −$27 (-9%)
Will Francisco Lindor win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? No 97¢ 99¢ $220 $225 +$5 (+2%)
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will the New York Mets win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 98¢ 99¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Will 50 Cent attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 98¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Will Lady Gaga attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 99¢ $197 $206 +$9 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $382 −$251 -66%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $408 +$95 +23%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $898 +$107 +12%
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $155 +$4 +2%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Spike Lee attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Mitch Marner lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 12 $46 −$12 -26%
Will Colton Sissons score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Nic Dowd score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 NH Jun 11 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Rasmus Andersson score the most goals in a single game during the Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan Staal score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 11 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Cam Skattebo attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $95 +$17 +18%
Will Aaron Judge attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Lady Gaga attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Carmelo Anthony attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $218 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $406 +$4 +1%
Will Chris Rock attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $346 +$4 +1%
Will Mariska Hartigay attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Derek Jeter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $260 +$16 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $468 +$40 +9%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $210 +$5 +2%
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $214 +$8 +4%
Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will Nick Suzuki win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 05 $108 +$15 +14%
Will Gregg Popovich attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $211 +$9 +4%
Will Spike Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Tracy Morgan attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Fat Joe attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $146 +$4 +2%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 03 $556 +$1 +0%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Darius Garland win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Alperen Sengun win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $89 +$11 +12%
Will George Springer hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regula May 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Will LaMelo Ball win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$8,758
other 11% +$1,504
world 3% −$13
politics 0% +$73
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $14 1m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $31 1m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $124 2m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $78 3m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $72 3m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $71 3m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $18 12m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $7 14m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 14m
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 16m
Will J.B. Smoove attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $21 18m
Will J.B. Smoove attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 19m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $21 23m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 23m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $30 25m
Will Matthew McConaughey attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $78 26m
Will Matthew McConaughey attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 26m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $19 30m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $7 30m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 32m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 33m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 35m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 36m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 37m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $7 38m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $7 38m
Will Samuel L. Jackson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 43m
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $127 44m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $25 45m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $29 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 17% -2.8%
≤30d 123 +1.3% -8.4% 98% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 327 +25.0% +13.1% 93% 14% -4.3%
all 350 +25.2% +13.3% 93% 15% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 15% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +2.4% 11% -13.0%
15% -7.5% 10% -21.4%
20% -16.5% 8% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,344.54 · official $16,287.77 (match) · 3500 history records