Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FF 0xffae…adae sports 781 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized −$19 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%353W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$601est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$208
14 days−$396
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 121 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 43% -10.7%
≤90d 468 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 45% -12.5%
all 778 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -10.2%
10% -17.6% 45% -18.8%
15% -25.6% 45% -26.6%
20% -32.9% 44% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$66 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses353 / 425
Est. fees paid−$601
Open positions5
Markets (closed)778 / 781
History coverage218d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 52¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+22%)
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Detroit Tigers 45¢ 57¢ $57 $73 +$16 (+28%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 44¢ $57 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers 41¢ 36¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-11%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 61¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $87 +$107 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $15 +$17 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $58 −$57 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $15 −$14 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $57 +$71 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $57 +$71 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $57 −$56 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $57 −$56 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $57 +$68 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $57 −$56 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $59 +$73 +124%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $59 +$71 +119%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $90 −$88 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $59 +$73 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $59 +$67 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $88 −$87 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $59 +$86 +146%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $60 +$66 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $60 −$59 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $60 −$59 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $61 +$69 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $61 +$73 +119%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $62 −$60 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $59 +$62 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $59 +$112 +188%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $59 +$79 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $59 +$70 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $61 −$59 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $61 −$59 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $89 +$106 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $60 +$68 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $58 5m
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Texas Rangers 41¢ $58 40m
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $58 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $58 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $87 29h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $15 30h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $15 30h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $57 47h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $57 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $57 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $57 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $57 2d
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $57 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $60 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $60 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $60 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $60 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $15 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 44¢ $59 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $90 4d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $59 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $59 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $88 5d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $59 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $15 5d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $59 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $59 5d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 44¢ $60 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $60 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 40¢ $60 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.07 · official $283.65 (match) · 1482 history records