Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffad…614c crypto 948 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-4%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate44%420W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day88.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$63
14 days−$142
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$272
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +17.9% +6.7% 36% 22% -15.9%
≤30d 948 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 23% -15.7%
≤90d 948 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 23% -15.7%
all 948 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 23% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 23% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 14% -23.7%
15% -29.7% 11% -31.1%
20% -36.6% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses420 / 528
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)948 / 948
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 948 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $0.00 · 3065 history records