Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffaa…9435 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,057 (+1%) realized +$1,055 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%43W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$49
other 32% +$2,175
sports 15% −$1,045
culture 6% −$8
world 5% −$3
crypto 1% −$21
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 +3.6% -6.3% 11% 2% -6.0%
all 131 +7.0% -3.2% 33% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 13% -8.7%
10% -12.5% 13% -17.4%
15% -20.9% 11% -25.4%
20% -28.7% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,217) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$20 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$1,055
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses43 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage151d
Avg bet$856
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $554 $556 +$2 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $231 $231 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,946 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $865 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $269 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $412 +$2 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $310 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,830 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,031 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $603 +$1 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $305 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $3,004 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,829 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $3,896 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1,166 +$2,073 +178%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $41 −$5 -12%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 03 $76 $0 +0%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-08? Mar 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-09? Mar 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $231 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $224 20h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $224 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $201 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $202 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $330 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $331 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $554 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $771 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $772 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $848 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $849 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $865 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $866 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $760 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $761 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 17d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $827 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $891 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $892 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.18 · official $787.18 (match) · 417 history records