Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffa8…4fc2 politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12
other 25% −$4
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -0.7% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage640d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Draymond Green lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will Amen Thompson win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Jets win the AFC East? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Utah win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win the NFC Championship? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 11h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 10d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 10d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 23d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $55 31d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 38d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 41d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $13 42d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $0 42d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $41 42d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 52d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 53d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 53d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $56 74d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 74d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $56 84d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $56 84d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 98d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 99d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $56 101d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $8 102d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 102d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $7 102d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 106d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 106d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records