trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 75% | 50% | -18.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 38% | 25% | -57.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -48.4% | -53.3% | 33% | 25% | -52.6% |
| all | 27 | -29.9% | -36.5% | 44% | 33% | -47.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.5% | 33% | -47.9% |
| 10% | -42.6% | 30% | -52.9% |
| 15% | -48.2% | 22% | -57.5% |
| 20% | -53.2% | 19% | -61.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 70¢ | 68¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 49¢ | 48¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca | Jun 15 | $16 | −$16 | -99% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$5 | +52% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jun 09 | $17 | −$17 | -98% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? | May 11 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? | May 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? | May 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-10? | May 11 | $9 | +$10 | +114% |
| Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada | Jul 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $61,000 on July 5? | Jul 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? | Jul 01 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka? | Jul 01 | $2 | +$2 | +75% |
| Switzerland vs. Italy - who will advance? | Jun 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? | Jun 29 | $1 | +$3 | +244% |
| Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 21? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Germany win? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Portugal win? | Jun 23 | $3 | +$2 | +61% |
| Ethereum above $3,400 on June 21? | Jun 22 | $2 | +$1 | +33% |
| NVIDIA largest company before June 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +22% |
| Ethereum above $3,800 on June 14? | Jun 15 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Trump mention $boden before July? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| MarginFi airdrop by June 30? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| LayerZero airdrop by June 30? | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |