Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffa6…d27f other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-33%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$5
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$18
sports 21% −$37
crypto 10% −$11
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 8 -49.3% -54.1% 38% 25% -57.3%
≤90d 12 -48.4% -53.3% 33% 25% -52.6%
all 27 -29.9% -36.5% 44% 33% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 33% -47.9%
10% -42.6% 30% -52.9%
15% -48.2% 22% -57.5%
20% -53.2% 19% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage742d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$10 +114%
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $61,000 on July 5? Jul 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? Jul 01 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka? Jul 01 $2 +$2 +75%
Switzerland vs. Italy - who will advance? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? Jun 29 $1 +$3 +244%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum above $3,400 on June 21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +33%
NVIDIA largest company before June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum above $3,800 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Trump mention $boden before July? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
MarginFi airdrop by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
LayerZero airdrop by June 30? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $16 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $17 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 36d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 36d
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 36d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 37d
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada BUY Canada 17¢ $1 707d
Bitcoin above $61,000 on July 5? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 712d
Bitcoin above $61,000 on July 5? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 715d
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? BUY Germany 49¢ $2 715d
Switzerland vs. Italy - who will advance? BUY Italy 55¢ $2 717d
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? SELL No 93¢ $4 717d
UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka? BUY Pereira 57¢ $2 717d
Will Germany win? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 723d
Will Portugal win? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 724d
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? BUY No 27¢ $1 731d
Ethereum above $3,400 on June 21? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 731d
Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 731d
Ethereum above $3,800 on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $2 735d
Will Trump mention $boden before July? SELL No 91¢ $1 735d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $43.64 (match) · 43 history records