Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffa5…0dce weather 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%104W / 143L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% $0
crypto 19% $0
other 10% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 48 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 246 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 247 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses104 / 143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage210d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on June 3? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 1? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 30? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 29? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 29? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 29? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or below on May 27? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima SELL No 100¢ $19 24d
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 566 history records