Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffa3…08f0 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-12%) realized −$110 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$116
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$79
other 9% −$39
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +49.6% +35.4% 28% 26% -24.2%
≤30d 51 +41.9% +28.4% 27% 25% -23.4%
≤90d 51 +41.9% +28.4% 27% 25% -23.4%
all 51 +41.9% +28.4% 27% 25% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 25% -23.4%
10% +16.1% 24% -30.8%
15% +4.9% 24% -37.4%
20% -5.4% 22% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 50¢ $129 $136 +$6 (+5%)
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $71 −$10 -15%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $73 −$4 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +302%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +474%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Pau Cubarsí: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$11 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$33 +217%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 +$65 +153%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$3 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$31 +151%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$18 +36%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $14 −$1 -9%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$26 +1519%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $14 −$13 -89%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $81 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/ BUY 25¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $51 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 23¢ $6 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Xi Luo 44¢ $61 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 50¢ $71 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $69 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $73 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $71 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $32 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 9h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $10 9h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $16 28h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $7 30h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $17 2d
Pau Cubarsí: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.58 · official $182.25 · 86 history records