Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffa2…297b other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 93L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$3
politics 17% −$4
sports 10% +$69
economics 8% −$2
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 +7.5% -2.7% 15% 11% -9.3%
all 108 +7.0% -3.2% 14% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 10% -9.3%
10% -12.4% 10% -18.0%
15% -20.9% 9% -25.9%
20% -28.6% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×15.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage95d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $384 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $376 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $478 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $397 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $400 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $424 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $406 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $394 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $488 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $424 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 20h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 22h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 25h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 29d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 30d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.92 · official $246.92 (match) · 299 history records