Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff9e…1434 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$9
other 23% $0
politics 10% $0
finance 7% −$2
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.8%
all 65 -0.6% -10.1% 34% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $76 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $81 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 −$5 -20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 20 $9 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $34 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $7 $0 -3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 04 $4 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 04 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 03 $13 −$1 -9%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 -3%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $15 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $15 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $10 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $20 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $17 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $33.24 (match) · 203 history records