Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff99…c474 crypto 67 markets active 2d ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-26%) realized −$73 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$69
other 40% −$9
sports 4% −$2
world 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.0% -39.4% 20% 20% -57.5%
≤30d 14 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -53.8%
≤90d 39 -25.1% -32.3% 28% 28% -50.2%
all 60 -17.9% -25.7% 28% 27% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 27% -46.2%
10% -32.8% 25% -51.3%
15% -39.3% 23% -56.0%
20% -45.3% 20% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)60 / 67
History coverage231d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+153%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$16 -79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 17 $1 +$3 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 17 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1 +$3 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $5 +$3 +51%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Feb 17 $1 $0 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -98%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? Feb 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 27d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 148 history records