Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff99…4e2b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$48 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$5
sports 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.8% -60.0% 30% 30% -14.0%
≤30d 10 -55.8% -60.0% 30% 30% -14.0%
≤90d 10 -55.8% -60.0% 30% 30% -14.0%
all 10 -55.8% -60.0% 30% 30% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.0% 30% -14.0%
10% -63.9% 10% -22.2%
15% -67.4% 10% -29.8%
20% -70.6% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$23 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $58 $69 +$11 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$21 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$50 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $59 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $25 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.19 · official $69.19 (match) · 16 history records