Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff98…98f9 crypto 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+1%) realized +$474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%285W / 106L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$215
14 days−$327
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$232
sports 1% −$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.0% -30.3% 54% 54% -33.0%
≤30d 165 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 67% -17.7%
≤90d 391 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 73% -10.4%
all 391 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 73% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 73% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 72% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 15% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$116 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses285 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 391
History coverage66d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$25 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$20 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$28 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$36 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$37 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$32 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$38 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$18 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $39 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 775 history records