Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff97…a784 other 279 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%122W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$11
sports 28% +$1
crypto 9% −$14
weather 7% +$8
politics 1% +$1
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +44.4% +30.6% 54% 54% +12.8%
≤30d 59 +7.8% -2.4% 49% 42% -8.8%
≤90d 187 -3.3% -12.6% 48% 45% -12.8%
all 265 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -15.2%
10% -25.7% 40% -23.3%
15% -32.8% 30% -30.7%
20% -39.4% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses122 / 143
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)265 / 279
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 74¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 64¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +319%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $3 −$1 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 24? May 25 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21? May 21 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 74¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan BUY Antonia Ruzic 79¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 56¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 64¢ $1 3d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 72¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes BUY Montreal Alouettes 83¢ $2 7d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Winnipeg Blue Bombers 72¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8d
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 9d
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.37 · official $23.37 (match) · 513 history records