Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff97…e7ca sports 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+1%) realized +$264 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%232W / 89L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$1,912
14 days−$2,179
30 days−$1,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$715
other 16% +$111
crypto 7% −$89
politics 4% −$88
weather 1% −$517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 20% -42.5%
≤30d 171 -1.6% -10.9% 83% 30% -22.6%
≤90d 299 +16.8% +5.6% 74% 38% -8.8%
all 321 +13.8% +2.9% 72% 39% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 39% -9.3%
10% -6.9% 24% -18.0%
15% -15.9% 15% -25.9%
20% -24.1% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$59 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses232 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions4
Markets (closed)321 / 325
History coverage108d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 78¢ 57¢ $195 $144 −$51 (-26%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $28 $31 +$4 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.68 · official $272.68 (match) · 1914 history records