Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff96…a784 world 74 markets active 6h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
other 23% $0
politics 21% $0
sports 4% −$8
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 66 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 2% -9.8%
all 73 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage521d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 −$4 -11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $38 −$7 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $83 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $0.00 · 248 history records