Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff94…0da1 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 30% +$4
sports 8% −$2
politics 6% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.4% -12.6% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -2.8% -12.0% 32% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 22 -2.8% -12.0% 32% 0% -10.1%
all 72 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage304d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $84 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $41 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $49 −$4 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $24 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $14 −$2 -10%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 −$2 -33%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $24 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 20 $3 $0 -15%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 19 $1 $0 +14%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $17 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $15 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records