Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff91…c59a other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$127 (+11%) realized +$130 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$131
sports 13% −$18
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 75% 75% +0.6%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 75% 75% +0.6%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 75% 75% +0.6%
all 8 -0.8% -10.2% 75% 75% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 75% +0.6%
10% -18.8% 50% -9.0%
15% -26.7% 38% -17.8%
20% -33.9% 12% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$76 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 +$38 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$83 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$114 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $211 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 83¢ $129 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $152 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $134 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $244 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $172 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.18 · official $47.18 (match) · 24 history records