Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff91…7441 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$30 (+15%) realized +$49 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2
crypto 8% +$11
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 83% 67% +11.2%
≤30d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 83% 67% +11.2%
≤90d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 83% 67% +11.2%
all 6 +14.8% +3.9% 83% 67% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 67% +11.2%
10% -6.1% 50% +0.5%
15% -15.1% 50% -9.2%
20% -23.5% 33% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.49 per $1 lost it wins $7.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 83¢ 30¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$18 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.48 · official $37.48 (match) · 17 history records