Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff91…ab3a
world · 169 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,159 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,076 · open +$392
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,248
Realized+$5,076
Unrealized+$392
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses82 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions36
Markets (closed)138 / 169
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,475
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 36 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,780
7 days+$4,738
14 days+$5,835
30 days+$2,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $2,947 $3,275 +$328 (+11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $1,810 $2,374 +$565 (+31%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $1,575 $1,759 +$184 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $1,045 $1,293 +$248 (+24%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 60¢ $665 $1,056 +$391 (+59%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $963 $986 +$23 (+2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $893 $970 +$77 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 81¢ 97¢ $403 $485 +$82 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $456 $453 −$3 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $286 $399 +$113 (+39%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 18¢ 31¢ $176 $310 +$134 (+76%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $270 $273 +$3 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $240 $254 +$14 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $163 $237 +$74 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $156 $172 +$16 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $183 $169 −$14 (-7%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? No 13¢ 12¢ $178 $162 −$16 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $254 $146 −$109 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $114 $139 +$26 (+23%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $163 $135 −$28 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 14¢ 10¢ $188 $130 −$58 (-31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 57¢ 18¢ $394 $128 −$266 (-68%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $142 $114 −$28 (-20%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 18¢ 37¢ $50 $104 +$54 (+108%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $141 $101 −$40 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $125 +$58 +46%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $12,215 +$5,831 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $126 −$108 -86%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,291 −$1,565 -48%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 08 $1,626 +$617 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $224 −$71 -32%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $110 +$78 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $575 −$280 -49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,615 −$31 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 03 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $466 +$61 +13%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $19 +$19 +104%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $889 +$2,654 +299%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 01 $2,066 +$1,036 +50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $176 −$75 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15,045 −$1,175 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,901 −$832 -44%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $232 +$379 +164%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15,775 +$232 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $1,989 +$385 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $3,133 −$363 -12%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $137 +$19 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $2,662 −$763 -29%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $480 +$20 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $567 −$191 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,709 −$21 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $204 +$166 +81%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $561 −$176 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $50 −$29 -58%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 27 $174 +$1,348 +775%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,423 −$111 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $468 +$33 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $209 −$94 -45%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $1,235 −$1,235 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,747 −$1,747 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $2,746 −$2,746 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1,544 +$198 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $1,766 +$28 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $4,200 −$809 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $731 +$83 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1,056 +$48 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 24 $130 +$15 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $1,190 +$215 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $594 +$44 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $144 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $272 −$92 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $85 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$3,457
sports 6% −$734
other 4% +$1,387
politics 4% +$1,644
crypto 2% −$93
finance 1% −$109
tech 1% +$248
economics 0% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $106 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $486 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 13m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 31m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $122 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $63 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $70 37m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $119 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $69 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $2 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $77 50m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $101 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $7 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $456 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $135 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 32¢ $153 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 32¢ $305 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $130 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $320 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 43% +14.8%
≤30d 82 +8.5% -1.9% 55% 38% -7.6%
≤90d 138 +22.0% +10.4% 59% 41% -7.3%
all 138 +22.0% +10.4% 59% 41% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 41% -7.3%
10% -0.1% 27% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -9.8% 25% -24.3%
20% -18.6% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,247.91 · official $16,247.95 (match) · 3500 history records