Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff8f…aaf8 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+12%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$3
other 24% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.9% +4.9% 67% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 6 +15.9% +4.9% 67% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 6 +15.9% +4.9% 67% 50% +0.2%
all 6 +15.9% +4.9% 67% 50% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 50% +0.2%
10% -5.1% 50% -9.4%
15% -14.3% 50% -18.2%
20% -22.7% 50% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $3.00 · 15 history records