Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff8e…1438 crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$445 (+4%) realized +$448 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%125W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$423
7 days+$1,306
14 days+$1,306
30 days+$2,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,387
other 29% −$1,018
crypto 14% +$171
weather 2% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 39% +16.6%
≤30d 19 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 42% +27.6%
≤90d 259 -6.1% -15.0% 48% 44% -5.9%
all 259 -6.1% -15.0% 48% 44% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -5.9%
10% -23.2% 34% -14.9%
15% -30.6% 20% -23.2%
20% -37.4% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$448
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses125 / 134
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 266
History coverage87d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $347 −$78 -22%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $106 −$78 -73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $120 +$180 +150%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 −$108 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $961 +$605 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $348 +$122 +35%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$98 -95%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $108 +$492 +456%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $52 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $703 +$295 +42%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $176 +$124 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $490 +$799 +163%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $764 +$862 +113%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1,323 −$1,296 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 18? Apr 19 $44 +$56 +126%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $211 −$206 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 19? Apr 19 $51 −$51 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 19? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? Apr 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 16 $165 +$135 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Apr 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 09 $315 −$315 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $407 +$428 +105%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -54%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 28 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 27 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 27 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 27 $297 +$363 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 27 $53 −$13 -24%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $305 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 80¢ $201 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $21 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria $29 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombi BUY 11¢ $128 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $120 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $13 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $3 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $83 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Argentina w BUY 10¢ $103 22h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 26¢ $106 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $146 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $111 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,566 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $961 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Bel BUY 16¢ $103 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $18 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $19 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $6 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $348 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain BUY $103 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will BUY $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.67 · official $421.67 · 882 history records