Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

FF 0xff8c…8102 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized −$2 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown88%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	67%	+1.5%
≤30d	3	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	67%	+1.5%
≤90d	3	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	67%	+1.5%
all	3	+16.9%	+5.7%	67%	67%	+1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.7%	67%	+1.5%
10%	-4.4%	67%	-8.2%
15%	-13.6%	67%	-17.1%
20%	-22.1%	33%	-25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown88%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	75¢	90¢	$28	$34	+$6 (+20%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+39%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$10	−$8	-82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	+$10	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$28	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	83¢	$20	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5	16h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.81 · official $54.28 (match) · 8 history records