Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff87…f5f7 sports 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,368 (-3%) realized −$1,372 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%178W / 115L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$18
14 days−$301
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$723
crypto 7% −$812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.0% -18.5% 62% 57% -9.9%
≤30d 138 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 58% -9.4%
≤90d 293 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 49% -12.6%
all 293 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 49% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 30% -21.0%
15% -27.6% 26% -28.6%
20% -34.7% 24% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$96 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized−$1,372
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses178 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions3
Markets (closed)293 / 296
History coverage58d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 88¢ 88¢ $329 $332 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 76¢ 74¢ $228 $224 −$4 (-2%)
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Adrienn Nagy 90¢ 100¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $645 +$105 +16%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $68 +$7 +10%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $130 +$20 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $183 +$42 +23%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $194 +$32 +16%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 16 $62 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 16 $63 +$12 +19%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $537 +$463 +86%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 15 $243 +$207 +85%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 15 $230 +$220 +96%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 14 $425 −$425 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $223 +$27 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 12 $473 −$473 -100%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $24 +$26 +109%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 11 $23 +$27 +114%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Jacob Bradshaw Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
Bratislava (Doubles): Donski/Paulson vs Pokorny/Sachko Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Nikola Slavic vs Karl Friberg Jun 11 $28 +$22 +82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 11 $23 +$27 +119%
ITF Martos: Marcos Castro Fabra vs Manel Lazaro Juncadella Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 11 $262 +$188 +72%
ITF Wichita: Duncan Chan vs Jie Cui Jun 11 $219 −$219 -100%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Reymond/Sanchez vs Altmaier/Jebens Jun 10 $755 +$110 +14%
ITF Monastir: Andrea Roots vs Isabella De Micco Padula Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Mao Mushika vs Shiho Tsujioka Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Anne-Christine Lutkemeyer Jun 10 $26 −$1 -4%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Takahashi vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 10 $28 +$22 +82%
ITF Los Angeles: Lucca Liu vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $53 +$47 +89%
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Jun 09 $52 +$48 +92%
ITF Zagreb: Laura Mair vs Alice Rame Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Shintaro Imai Jun 09 $356 +$244 +68%
ITF Wuning: JiaYi Wang vs Varvara Panshina Jun 09 $52 +$48 +94%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Kira Pavlova Jun 09 $28 +$22 +77%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Paul/Shelton Jun 09 $270 −$20 -7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 08 $28 +$22 +82%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 08 $59 +$41 +70%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 08 $232 −$232 -100%
ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Berta Passola Jun 08 $687 −$687 -100%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 07 $286 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 1h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 90¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 88¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 88¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 88¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 87¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 87¢ $65 2h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu BUY Naho Sato 86¢ $64 32h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 86¢ $64 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 86¢ $64 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 86¢ $64 2d
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 83¢ $62 2d
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Naoki Nakagawa 80¢ $60 2d
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Naoki Nakagawa 82¢ $62 2d
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Naoki Nakagawa 82¢ $62 2d
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi BUY Hikaru Shiraishi 91¢ $68 2d
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 87¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.47 · official $586.47 · 2032 history records