Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FF 0xff83…726e other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$151 (+15%) realized +$152 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$205per market

Trades / day11.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+21.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+33.9%	+21.2%	100%	100%	+13.5%
≤30d	4	+33.9%	+21.2%	100%	100%	+13.5%
≤90d	4	+33.9%	+21.2%	100%	100%	+13.5%
all	4	+33.9%	+21.2%	100%	100%	+13.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.2%	100%	+13.5%
10%	+9.6%	75%	+2.7%
15%	-1.0%	50%	-7.3%
20%	-10.7%	0%	-16.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$56 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized+$152

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$205

Trades / day11.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$145	$144	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$50	+$15	+30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$502	+$58	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$224	+$100	+44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$50	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$146	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Spain	98¢	$65	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$560	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	75¢	$50	9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$401	9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$324	13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$22	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.95 · official $143.95 (match) · 13 history records