Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff82…bd3c other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$36 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$43
other 5% −$26
crypto 5% −$15
sports 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -31.9% -38.4% 14% 14% -16.9%
≤30d 28 -31.9% -38.4% 14% 14% -16.9%
≤90d 42 -28.6% -35.4% 26% 21% -17.7%
all 42 -28.6% -35.4% 26% 21% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 21% -17.7%
10% -41.6% 14% -25.6%
15% -47.2% 12% -32.8%
20% -52.4% 10% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage68d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $176 −$9 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $72 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $64 −$5 -8%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $91 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 20 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $68 −$15 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +113%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $140 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $141 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $187 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $94 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.46 · official $14.46 (match) · 182 history records