Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff82…76e6
crypto · 1183 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$107 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses292 / 848
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1140 / 1183
History coverage82d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$46
14 days+$80
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 44% +2.6%
≤30d 302 +7.2% -3.0% 41% 41% +0.6%
≤90d 1140 -10.0% -18.6% 26% 26% -12.6%
all 1140 -10.0% -18.6% 26% 26% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 26% -12.6%
10% -26.4% 25% -20.9%
15% -33.5% 25% -28.6%
20% -40.0% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.88 (match) · 2300 history records