Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff81…44c9 sports 1316 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90,698 (-5%) realized −$90,678 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%643W / 672L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,465per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$15,808est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,924
7 days−$18,979
14 days−$19,434
30 days−$14,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$95,102
other 7% +$2,001
world 0% −$21
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 53% -21.9%
≤30d 241 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 54% -10.3%
≤90d 708 -18.8% -26.6% 47% 46% -17.7%
all 1315 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 46% -21.5%
15% -28.6% 38% -29.1%
20% -35.6% 29% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$822 vs −$925 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$2,692
Realized−$90,678
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses643 / 672
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$15,808
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1315 / 1316
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,465
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tommy Paul 70¢ 69¢ $2,712 $2,692 −$20 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $1,980 +$759 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $1,564 −$1,078 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,970 +$1,123 +57%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $4,305 −$1,885 -44%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $3,525 −$3,499 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $707 +$307 +43%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1,973 +$537 +27%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $2,504 −$1,797 -72%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $3,320 +$1,155 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,949 +$1,370 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,144 −$3,195 -62%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $5,436 −$290 -5%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1,961 −$1,943 -99%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $5,215 +$2,182 +42%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1,911 +$1,330 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $3,091 +$793 +26%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2,461 +$631 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $4,691 −$1,657 -35%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1,904 −$1,887 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,450 +$1,673 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,971 +$1,480 +50%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $2,004 −$1,980 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $994 −$974 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1,754 −$1,727 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1,548 +$1,562 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1,519 +$1,113 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $970 −$954 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $1,604 +$912 +57%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5,164 −$3,094 -60%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $977 +$909 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1,577 +$564 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $4,252 +$900 +21%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $974 +$602 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $3,146 +$1,107 +35%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3,872 −$3,831 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $3,269 +$608 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2,406 −$2,373 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1,768 +$640 +36%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $2,607 −$839 -32%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $6,498 −$6,412 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $3,280 −$1,736 -53%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $6,049 +$2,098 +35%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2,921 +$895 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $2,536 −$2,500 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $8,764 −$191 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $13,606 −$1,585 -12%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $4,954 +$1,195 +24%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $7,711 −$5,583 -72%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $6,047 −$3,524 -58%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $3,942 +$2,539 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $2,736 36m
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $331 1h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $519 1h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,889 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 43¢ $448 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 18¢ $448 3h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,980 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 43¢ $1,116 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 56¢ $1,910 19h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 51¢ $1,911 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,970 19h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 62¢ $2,395 19h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 76¢ $1,015 23h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $1,013 23h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $2,510 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $2,510 24h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 69¢ $707 25h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 19¢ $707 25h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $1,973 27h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 65¢ $2,504 27h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $4,475 27h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 74¢ $3,320 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,949 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,949 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,144 45h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 75¢ $5,146 45h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 68¢ $1,961 45h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $5,436 45h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $7,397 45h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 81¢ $3,630 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,692.19 · official $2,692.58 (match) · 2840 history records