Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xff7f…711e other 35 markets active 3d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$125 (+19%) realized +$147 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$20
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$55
politics 26% +$26
sports 12% +$28
tech 4% −$6
culture 3% +$32
finance 2% −$10
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 60% -21.0%
≤30d 8 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 16 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 38% -15.6%
all 30 +15.8% +4.7% 50% 47% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 47% +16.3%
10% -5.3% 43% +5.2%
15% -14.4% 40% -5.0%
20% -22.8% 23% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage140d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 60¢ 43¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 42¢ 25¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 +$30 +55%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $60 +$34 +56%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? May 26 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 18 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Die" be said 5+ times during the Taipei 101 climb? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 05 $15 +$7 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Mar 10 $10 −$4 -37%
Kash Patel out by March 31? Mar 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $5 +$16 +316%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $10 +$4 +42%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 22 $28 +$72 +257%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Feb 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 08 $9 +$21 +234%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $15 +$40 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 10d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 20d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 21d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 69¢ $36 59d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 72d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 72d
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 72d
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $60 72d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 52¢ $22 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 94d
Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t BUY Yes 6¢ $5 97d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 98d
Kash Patel out by March 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 98d
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 76¢ $21 106d
Kash Patel out by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 107d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win SELL Yes 100¢ $100 114d
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 118d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 122d
Kristi Noem out by March 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 123d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 36¢ $15 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.97 · official $107.99 (match) · 139 history records