Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FF 0xff7d…7fd5 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$38 (+32%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$17
other 39% +$18
world 11% +$3
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +23.5% +11.7% 45% 45% +25.1%
≤30d 29 +23.5% +11.7% 45% 45% +25.1%
≤90d 29 +23.5% +11.7% 45% 45% +25.1%
all 34 +15.7% +4.7% 44% 44% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 44% +18.6%
10% -5.4% 44% +7.2%
15% -14.5% 32% -3.1%
20% -22.9% 29% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage128d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal to score first vs. France? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +286%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +230%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +228%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $10 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 82¢ $3 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.83 · official $3.83 (match) · 77 history records