Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff7c…c0b2 crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$238 (+6%) realized +$372 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%168W / 168L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$416
7 days−$148
14 days+$98
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$127
crypto 20% +$54
sports 9% −$35
world 2% +$51
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 39% -19.4%
≤30d 56 +2.5% -7.3% 61% 59% -0.4%
≤90d 85 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 61% +2.2%
all 336 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 47% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 47% -0.6%
10% -12.8% 43% -10.1%
15% -21.3% 40% -18.8%
20% -29.0% 34% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$372
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses168 / 168
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)336 / 342
History coverage148d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $49 +$34 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Tallahassee: Oliver Crawford vs Jack Kennedy Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $131 −$131 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 28 $49 −$48 -99%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$34 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-2 Jun 28 $40 +$74 +184%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $62 +$21 +34%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $99 +$27 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 +$44 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$24 +94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$35 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$82 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $93 +$49 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$48 +75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $37 +$24 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $84 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $48 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 23h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 62¢ $49 23h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 67¢ $50 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $113 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-2 BUY 34¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 42¢ $50 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 9d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $54 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.86 · official $158.86 (match) · 812 history records