Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff74…5de4 weather 932 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,121 (+19%) realized +$724 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%157W / 621L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day101.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,052
7 days−$881
14 days−$211
30 days+$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,085
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -57.5% -61.6% 11% 11% -58.1%
≤30d 672 -20.4% -28.0% 21% 20% +1.5%
≤90d 778 -19.5% -27.1% 20% 19% +0.2%
all 778 -19.5% -27.1% 20% 19% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 19% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 19% -9.4%
15% -40.5% 18% -18.2%
20% -46.3% 18% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9.01418229210668% → late -29.899147619240743% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$724
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses157 / 621
Open positions42
Markets (closed)778 / 932
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day101.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $14 $83 +$69 (+484%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $38 $82 +$43 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $18 $43 +$25 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+3280%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+171%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 10? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on May 10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 28 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.80 · official $373.82 (match) · 3500 history records