Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff72…cdaa crypto 230 markets active 4h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,605 (+2%) realized +$5,113 · open +$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%129W / 93L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,425per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1,847
14 days+$8,492
30 days+$7,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$14,138
crypto 24% +$2,109
other 13% +$12,103
politics 10% +$3,247
sports 5% +$6,035
economics 3% +$45
tech 1% +$608
finance 1% −$2,137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 44% -28.3%
≤30d 48 -27.0% -33.9% 38% 31% -1.7%
≤90d 135 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 38% -5.7%
all 222 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 33% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 33% -7.5%
10% -18.4% 20% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 10% -24.4%
20% -33.5% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$581 vs −$727 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$6,376
Realized+$5,113
Unrealized+$492
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses129 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions8
Markets (closed)222 / 230
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$1,425
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 39¢ $2,037 $3,362 +$1,325 (+65%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of June? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $1,665 $1,983 +$318 (+19%)
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $450 $430 −$20 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $300 $230 −$70 (-23%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $290 $208 −$82 (-28%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 6¢ $105 $85 −$20 (-19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $986 $54 −$932 (-95%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $51 $25 −$26 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -55%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $93 −$87 -93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $337 −$272 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $460 +$1,540 +335%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $2,113 +$387 +18%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $2,075 +$425 +20%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $1,388 −$1,378 -99%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $2,475 −$2,459 -99%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $531 −$173 -32%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $9,413 +$10,745 +114%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $218 −$218 -100%
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +21%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,639 −$1,562 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,842 −$440 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $525 −$352 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $2,218 −$1,766 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,230 −$2,002 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4,648 −$4,648 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,001 −$570 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,220 −$567 -46%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $256 −$164 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $216 −$210 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $160 −$160 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3,126 +$1,568 +50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $876 +$36 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $351 +$111 +32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $8,372 +$2,755 +33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1,519 +$534 +35%
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? Jun 10 $189 −$25 -13%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,230 −$3,718 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $2,080 +$484 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $1,389 −$1,389 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $919 −$289 -32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10,106 +$12,683 +126%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,382 +$69 +5%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $225 −$212 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $966 +$181 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,371 −$654 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 01 $876 −$391 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $984 −$375 -38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3,701 +$650 +18%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 01 $4,388 +$595 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $405 −$259 -64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $584 +$162 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $210 3h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? SELL No 35¢ $2 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 29¢ $2 39h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $65 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $75 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $237 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $93 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $195 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $908 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY No 18¢ $173 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY No 18¢ $7 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY No 28¢ $280 4d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 72¢ $908 5d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,455 5d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $2,113 7d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,075 7d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,020 8d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 48¢ $480 9d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 10d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $225 10d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 10d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,376.37 · official $6,376.37 (match) · 3500 history records