Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff70…ac9b sports 669 markets active 13h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%358W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day63.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$28
14 days−$82
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$11
other 13% −$69
crypto 6% −$21
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 44% -19.1%
≤30d 402 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 42% -13.9%
≤90d 668 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 39% -12.9%
all 668 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 39% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 39% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 32% -21.3%
15% -27.7% 25% -28.9%
20% -34.8% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses358 / 310
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)668 / 669
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day63.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 46¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $2 $0 +10%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 +$2 +39%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $2 $0 +2%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 27 $1 +$1 +104%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +78%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $2 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 +$5 +470%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +56%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +59%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 +$5 +163%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 +$7 +322%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +31%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $3 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $1 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 13h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 33h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 33h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 33h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 34h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 10¢ $1 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 10¢ $1 34h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 93¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 93¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 93¢ $1 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 84¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 98¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 98¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 84¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 84¢ $1 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 42h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 87¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.14 · official $6.14 (match) · 2725 history records