Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff6f…32b3
world · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$279
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)3 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 21 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 77¢ 77¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes $12 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% $0
other 21% −$1
politics 7% $0
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 1m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $12 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 2m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes $12 6m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 7m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 8m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $12 10m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 49¢ $24 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 17m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 84¢ $26 25m
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $12 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 17h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 18h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $6 18h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $24 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $12 18h
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 67% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 67% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 67% 0% -11.4%
all 3 -30.1% -36.8% 67% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 0% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 0% -19.9%
15% -48.3% 0% -27.6%
20% -53.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.84 · official $279.53 (match) · 32 history records