Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff6f…448f other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$33 (+5%) realized +$40 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$70
14 days+$41
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$40
sports 20% −$13
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 50% +7.1%
≤30d 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 31% -3.7%
≤90d 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 31% -3.7%
all 32 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 31% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 31% -3.7%
10% -32.1% 25% -12.9%
15% -38.7% 19% -21.3%
20% -44.7% 12% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 70¢ $145 $138 −$7 (-5%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 26 $292 +$58 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 $0 +13%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $3 +$2 +60%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 $0 -1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$11 +45%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $16 +$8 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $59 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 41h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 75¢ $3 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $3 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $3 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $5 5d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $15 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $10 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $7 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.28 · official $143.28 (match) · 63 history records