Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff68…8379 sports 493 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+2%) realized +$354 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%208W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$54
14 days+$190
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$112
crypto 18% +$547
other 3% −$250
world 1% −$95
politics 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -8.8% -17.5% 36% 34% -6.0%
≤30d 384 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 40% -7.2%
≤90d 474 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 38% -7.7%
all 474 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 38% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -7.7%
10% -21.6% 37% -16.5%
15% -29.2% 34% -24.6%
20% -36.1% 32% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$354
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses208 / 266
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions18
Markets (closed)474 / 493
History coverage48d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 54¢ 58¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Over 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 48¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 241 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $20 +$18 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $61 +$44 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 +$19 +365%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +136%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$12 +241%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $40 +$24 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 +$24 +238%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 +$18 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $30 +$13 +44%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 3m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $13 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 5h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $5 5h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $5 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $20 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $61 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 21¢ $5 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $50 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $20 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 74¢ $17 45h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $51 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 47h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 47h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.91 · official $63.67 (match) · 1044 history records