Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff67…a1c9 sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$995 (+1%) realized +$1,043 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%91W / 101L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$453est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$517
7 days+$578
14 days+$825
30 days+$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$825
politics 35% +$642
sports 22% +$14
crypto 2% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.5% +19.0% 60% 60% +14.4%
≤30d 35 +16.5% +5.4% 71% 43% -4.8%
≤90d 192 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 30% -7.9%
all 192 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 30% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 30% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -16.7%
15% -26.7% 25% -24.7%
20% -33.9% 23% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$39 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$1,043
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses91 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$453
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 195
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$414
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $326 $338 +$12 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $43 −$2 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 +$46 +83%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $284 +$146 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $283 +$430 +152%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $125 +$283 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $146 +$57 +39%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$30 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $392 −$186 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $163 +$38 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $160 +$41 +26%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $183 +$37 +20%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $204 $0 +0%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $23 +$18 +79%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 09 $8,736 +$64 +1%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $378 +$122 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $169 +$131 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $103 −$58 -56%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $188 +$3 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $117 +$9 +7%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $71 +$39 +54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $72 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $53 −$23 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $87 +$16 +18%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus May 29 $110 −$2 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $153 −$29 -19%
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $2,265 −$4 -0%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $678 $0 +0%
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $11 +$9 +79%
SC Internacional vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $114 +$8 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $170 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $7 +$5 +64%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $150 +$40 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $56 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 51¢ $104 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $6 19h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 52¢ $3 19h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 52¢ $3 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $283 23h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $106 27h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 53¢ $3 27h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 54¢ $3 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $179 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $125 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $202 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $146 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $59 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $13 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $17 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $9 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $41 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $95 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.02 · official $381.02 (match) · 3500 history records