trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +131.3% | +109.3% | 50% | 50% | +6.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +64.5% | +48.9% | 75% | 75% | +81.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +64.5% | +48.9% | 75% | 75% | +81.3% |
| all | 8 | +64.5% | +48.9% | 75% | 75% | +81.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +48.9% | 75% | +81.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +34.6% | 50% | +64.0% |
| 15% | +21.6% | 38% | +48.1% |
| 20% | +9.7% | 38% | +33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | No | 64¢ | 87¢ | $1,250 | $1,706 | +$456 (+36%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $3,100 | $105 | −$2,995 (-97%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 12¢ | $120 | $79 | −$41 (-34%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $4,100 | $17 | −$4,083 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju | Jun 15 | $100 | +$264 | +264% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1,250 | −$19 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7,050 | +$13,396 | +190% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 01 | $2,051 | +$554 | +27% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,000 | +$217 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $2,982 | +$575 | +19% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 26 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | May 25 | $2,000 | +$1,913 | +96% |