Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff63…e058 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$10,493 (+40%) realized +$17,157 · open −$6,664
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,213per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$245
14 days+$13,641
30 days+$16,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$10,036
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +131.3% +109.3% 50% 50% +6.9%
≤30d 8 +64.5% +48.9% 75% 75% +81.3%
≤90d 8 +64.5% +48.9% 75% 75% +81.3%
all 8 +64.5% +48.9% 75% 75% +81.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.9% 75% +81.3%
10% ← realistic here +34.6% 50% +64.0%
15% +21.6% 38% +48.1%
20% +9.7% 38% +33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,820 vs −$110 · ×25.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×77.14 per $1 lost it wins $77.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,906
Realized+$17,157
Unrealized−$6,664
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2,213
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 64¢ 87¢ $1,250 $1,706 +$456 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $3,100 $105 −$2,995 (-97%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $120 $79 −$41 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ $4,100 $17 −$4,083 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $100 +$264 +264%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,250 −$19 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $7,050 +$13,396 +190%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $2,051 +$554 +27%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$217 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,982 +$575 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $2,000 +$1,913 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $500 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 22¢ $364 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $500 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $250 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $250 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $250 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $500 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $100 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $250 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $250 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $500 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $500 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $500 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $5 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $12 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $12 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $11 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $1 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $1,190 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $500 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $500 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $500 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $500 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $500 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $250 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,905.90 · official $1,905.90 (match) · 91 history records