Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff57…1802 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%90W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day107.2pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days−$87
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$130
other 30% +$92
crypto 1% +$5
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.9% -16.7% 74% 9% -10.0%
≤30d 119 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 13% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 13% -9.6%
all 119 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 13% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses90 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage12d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day107.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $445 −$2 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $136 +$86 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $172 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $894 +$9 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $333 +$3 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $433 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $270 −$5 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $588 +$56 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $311 +$14 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 +$5 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $280 +$5 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $177 +$6 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 +$6 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 +$2 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $317 +$17 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $352 +$1 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$4 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $62 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $233 −$45 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $448 +$50 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $107 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $157 +$5 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $427 −$4 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $133 −$8 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $910 −$316 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $12 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $5 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $10 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $69 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $22 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $22 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $13 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $78 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $15 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $16 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $22 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $75 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $61 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $60 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $80 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $32 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $60 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $60 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1354 history records