Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff56…1e6f other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$149 (-13%) realized −$138 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days−$170
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$76
sports 39% −$31
crypto 14% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.3% +36.9% 100% 100% +32.5%
≤30d 82 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -22.2%
≤90d 82 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -22.2%
all 82 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 48% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 48% -22.2%
10% -29.6% 46% -29.7%
15% -36.4% 40% -36.5%
20% -42.7% 29% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage30d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 77¢ 56¢ $38 $28 −$11 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$12 +45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $11 +$10 +87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Brazil vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$4 +50%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $10 +$7 +70%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $0 $0 -97%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $18 −$12 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $58 +$39 +67%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $39 34m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $39 34m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $58 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $20 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $20 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $16 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $21 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 53¢ $11 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 9d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 9d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 10d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 61¢ $9 15d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 15d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 59¢ $17 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.70 · official $30.20 · 183 history records