Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff54…62b5 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 111L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$15
politics 25% −$15
sports 18% −$11
culture 7% −$6
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% −$4
world 4% +$2
finance 3% −$3
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 63 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 110 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 132 -0.4% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage106d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $46 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $374 −$2 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $232 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $111 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $171 −$3 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $245 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 05 $55 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,126 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $44 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $396 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $59 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $432 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 55m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 5h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $60 6h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $60 11h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 11h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $38 19h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $38 23h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 30h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $48 30h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $51 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $51 43h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 43h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $58 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.22 · official $43.22 (match) · 566 history records