Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff53…6963 other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 40L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$28
other 31% +$14
politics 22% +$24
finance 3% +$3
weather 3% +$1
crypto 2% +$6
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +180.8% +154.1% 71% 14% -13.9%
≤90d 82 +25.2% +13.3% 52% 12% -9.3%
all 86 +24.3% +12.5% 53% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 13% -9.3%
10% +1.7% 9% -18.0%
15% -8.1% 6% -25.9%
20% -17.1% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage95d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? No 94¢ 94¢ $137 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 23 $5 +$70 +1348%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $78 +$6 +7%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, May 12 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $138 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $7 $0 +4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 11 $9 $0 +3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 11 $356 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $512 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $14 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $333 −$27 -8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 25 $99 +$1 +2%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $192 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $168 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $184 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $176 −$2 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 16 $9 −$2 -16%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $142 +$1 +1%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 15 $27 $0 +2%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 15 $5 −$1 -17%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 13 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $172 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $167 +$1 +0%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 11 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 10 $187 $0 +0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 20m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $121 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $33 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $21 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $32 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $52 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $74 27d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $47 28d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $8 28d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 28d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $1 31d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $1 31d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $0 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY Yes $5 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $0 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $4 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 34d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 39d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 40d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? SELL Yes $8 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $8 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.10 · official $150.10 (match) · 367 history records