Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff53…5dd3 sports 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,315 (-10%) realized −$1,272 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%89W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$551
7 days−$236
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,616
other 11% +$246
crypto 7% −$115
politics 2% +$1
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 36% -20.3%
≤30d 62 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 44% -7.5%
≤90d 111 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 46% -14.7%
all 171 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 40% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 40% -19.4%
10% -20.3% 35% -27.1%
15% -28.0% 27% -34.2%
20% -35.0% 26% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$60 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$1,272
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses89 / 82
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions6
Markets (closed)171 / 180
History coverage180d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+59%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +56%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $71 −$20 -28%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -22%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$36 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$21 -41%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 −$19 -61%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$18 -89%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -37%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$50 +488%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$16 -79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$39 -78%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +178%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$67 +55%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$64 +618%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 33¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $71 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 36¢ $13 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $51 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 89¢ $47 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 43h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 41¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $156 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.93 · official $256.94 (match) · 460 history records