Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff53…c7ce crypto 1110 markets active 11h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-6%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%349W / 761L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$29
14 days−$69
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$96
sports 5% +$24
other 1% +$2
weather 0% −$3
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -48.4% -53.3% 22% 20% -44.5%
≤30d 273 -20.4% -27.9% 34% 28% -28.5%
≤90d 1110 -16.7% -24.6% 31% 23% -13.1%
all 1110 -16.7% -24.6% 31% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 23% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 20% -21.4%
15% -38.4% 17% -29.0%
20% -44.4% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses349 / 761
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1110 / 1110
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1110 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $1 $0 +50%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Shifters 0¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records